HISTORY

It was a hot summer day in 2006. Johannes Bernreuter, a German journalist specialized in photovoltaics and known for his diligent research, was sweating over his second global polysilicon market survey for Sun & Wind Energy magazine. At that time, new polysilicon projects began to spring up like mushrooms across the world, above all in China (polysilicon market analysis).

An idea born in the early days of the polysilicon upswing

Faced with this flood of activities, the experienced journalist felt he had to limit his research. If he didn’t, it would go beyond the scope of a standard magazine article.

But to stop digging deeper is something Bernreuter doesn’t like at all. At some point, an idea flashed up in his brain: How about covering the polysilicon industry in a fully fleshed out market research report? That was the moment when the concept behind Bernreuter Research was born.

The idea of establishing a market research firm fascinated Bernreuter. Finally, he would be able to fully bring in what he was best at: meticulous research. However, he also had some doubts: Would he be able to compete against large market research companies with dozens of analysts?

Successful debut in a market niche

Bernreuter decided it was worth a trial. In his endeavor, he was encouraged by Charlie Gay, a solar industry veteran with decades of experience. Bernreuter focused his approach on a market niche with two unique selling propositions:

• comprehensive coverage of all polysilicon manufacturers and aspirants;

• in-depth analysis of incumbent and new production processes.

While gradually reducing his journalistic duties, Bernreuter prepared the website www.bernreuter.com. With its launch in June 2008, Bernreuter Research came into life.

After that, a research marathon on 150 polysilicon companies and projects began, supported by Frank Haugwitz, a Beijing-based solar energy consultant. In April 2010, the fruit of Bernreuter’s extensive work was complete: the 174-page Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production.

Spurred by the very positive response, Bernreuter Research started to refine its research methodology.

A series of market research innovations

• The 2012 follow-up edition demonstrated that most analysts’ predictions of global PV installation volume remained on average around 30% below the actual result. As a consequence, Bernreuter Research has developed its own demand-forecast approach. Today it tracks PV installations in more than 100 countries, accounting for the fact that the PV industry consumes more than 90% of polysilicon produced worldwide.
• In the 2014 edition, Bernreuter Research introduced a modified interpretation of the industry cost curve, a price forecast tool popularized by the consulting company McKinsey in the 1980s. By adapting this tool to the specific conditions in the polysilicon industry, Bernreuter has achieved a remarkable track record of price forecasts.
• Issued in late 2016, the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020 contained – for the first time – a sophisticated scenario of how the specific silicon consumption in grams per watt of solar cell power will develop, based on many input variables. The specific consumption significantly influences total polysilicon demand.
• Issued in late 2020, the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024 develops the scenario of specific silicon consumption further and introduces a forecast of the polysilicon demand for high-efficiency n-type solar cells. The report also provides new details on polysilicon production technologies and costs, such as electricity consumption, power tariffs and capital expenditures.
• Issued in late 2023, the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 screens the construction projects of 36 new entrants and aspirants from China and three from India, shows the main silicon metal suppliers of the top seven polysilicon manufacturers in China, and adopts a novel forecast methodology for global PV installations. Moreover, the report assesses the global quartz reserves for silicon metal production and predicts how much of these reserves will be consumed by polysilicon, silicones, aluminum-silicon alloys and silicon-based anodes for lithium-ion batteries by 2030.

High quality in a changing market environment

Owing to ample supply, sinking prices and growing market share of Chinese manufacturers, however, international interest in the polysilicon market has waned in recent years.

This has only motivated Bernreuter Research to be even more ambitious in convincing customers with the high precision of its market reports. Bernreuter’s new website, which was relaunched in June 2020 to offer more comprehensive and detailed information on the polysilicon market, is an expression of this philosophy.