HISTORY
From diligent journalism to sophisticated market research
The idea behind Bernreuter Research was born in the heyday of the polysilicon shortage in 2006 when covering the flood of new factory projects went beyond the scope of a standard magazine article. Hence, company founder Johannes Bernreuter, a reputable photovoltaic journalist, has developed a series of market research tools to provide in-depth polysilicon industry reports.
It was a hot summer day in 2006. Johannes Bernreuter, a German journalist specialized in photovoltaics and known for his diligent research, was sweating over his second global polysilicon market survey for Sun & Wind Energy magazine. At that time, new polysilicon projects began to spring up like mushrooms across the world, above all in China (polysilicon market analysis).
An idea born in the early days of the polysilicon upswing
Faced with this flood of activities, the experienced journalist felt he had to limit his research. If he didn’t, it would go beyond the scope of a standard magazine article.
But to stop digging deeper is something Bernreuter doesn’t like at all. At some point, an idea flashed up in his brain: How about covering the polysilicon industry in a fully fleshed out market research report? That was the moment when the concept behind Bernreuter Research was born.
The idea of establishing a market research firm fascinated Bernreuter. Finally, he would be able to fully bring in what he was best at: meticulous research. However, he also had some doubts: Would he be able to compete against large market research companies with dozens of analysts?
Successful debut in a market niche
Bernreuter decided it was worth a trial. In his endeavor, he was encouraged by Charlie Gay, a solar industry veteran with decades of experience. Bernreuter focused his approach on a market niche with two unique selling propositions:
• comprehensive coverage of all polysilicon manufacturers and aspirants;
• in-depth analysis of incumbent and new production processes.
While gradually reducing his journalistic duties, Bernreuter prepared the website www.bernreuter.com. With its launch in June 2008, Bernreuter Research came into life.
After that, a research marathon on 150 polysilicon companies and projects began, supported by Frank Haugwitz, a Beijing-based solar energy consultant. In April 2010, the fruit of Bernreuter’s extensive work was complete: the 174-page Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production.
Spurred by the very positive response, Bernreuter Research started to refine its research methodology.
A series of market research innovations
- The 2012 follow-up edition demonstrated that most analysts’ predictions of global PV installation volume remained on average around 30% below the actual result. As a consequence, Bernreuter Research has developed its own demand-forecast approach. Today it tracks PV installations in more than 100 countries, accounting for the fact that the PV industry consumes more than 90% of polysilicon produced worldwide.
- In the 2014 edition, Bernreuter Research introduced a modified interpretation of the industry cost curve, a price forecast tool popularized by the consulting company McKinsey in the 1980s. By adapting this tool to the specific conditions in the polysilicon industry, Bernreuter has achieved a remarkable track record of price forecasts.
- Issued in late 2016, the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020 contained – for the first time – a sophisticated scenario of how the specific silicon consumption in grams per watt of solar cell power will develop, based on many input variables. The specific consumption significantly influences total polysilicon demand.
- Issued in late 2020, the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024 develops the scenario of specific silicon consumption further and introduces a forecast of the polysilicon demand for high-efficiency n-type solar cells. The report also provides new details on polysilicon production technologies and costs, such as electricity consumption, power tariffs and capital expenditures.
- Issued in late 2023, the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 screens the construction projects of 36 new entrants and aspirants from China and three from India, shows the main silicon metal suppliers of the top seven polysilicon manufacturers in China, and adopts a novel forecast methodology for global PV installations. Moreover, the report assesses the global quartz reserves for silicon metal production and predicts how much of these reserves will be consumed by polysilicon, silicones, aluminum-silicon alloys and silicon-based anodes for lithium-ion batteries by 2030.
High quality in a changing market environment
Owing to ample supply, sinking prices and growing market share of Chinese manufacturers, however, international interest in the polysilicon market has waned in recent years.
This has only motivated Bernreuter Research to be even more ambitious in convincing customers with the high precision of its market reports. Bernreuter’s new website, which was relaunched in June 2020 to offer more comprehensive and detailed information on the polysilicon market, is an expression of this philosophy.
2006
Second global polysilicon market survey for Sun & Wind Energy magazine
The concept behind Bernreuter Research is born
2008
Launch of www.bernreuter.com
Formation of Bernreuter Research
2010
Premier edition of the
Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production
Covers 150 polysilicon companies and projects and analyzes 10 different polysilicon production technologies
2012
2012 edition of the
Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production
Demonstrates that most analysts’ predictions of global PV installations are far below the actual result
2014
2014 edition of the
Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production
Introduces a nuanced interpretation of the industry cost curve as a price forecast tool
2016
First edition of the
Polysilicon Market Outlook
Establishes a sophisticated scenario of how the specific silicon consumption will develop
2020
Relaunch of www.bernreuter.com
New concept of a comprehensive and detailed polysilicon information platform
2020
Second edition of the
Polysilicon Market Outlook
Introduces demand forecast for n-type material; provides new details on production technologies and costs
2023
Third edition of the
Polysilicon Market Outlook
Adopts a novel forecast methodology for global PV installations and assesses the quartz reserves for silicon metal
Get Your In-depth Report: The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027
- Benefit from 102 pages full of rich data, in-depth analyses and detailed forecasts on the polysilicon, solar and semiconductor industries
- Learn all about the latest developments of polysilicon manufacturing technologies (Siemens process, fluidized bed reactor, upgraded silicon kerf loss from wafer sawing)
- Obtain comprehensive data on production volumes and capacities of 45 solar-grade and electronic-grade polysilicon plants from 2020 through 2027
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- Get valuable guidance with cash cost data on 30 solar-grade polysilicon plants and spot price forecasts through 2027
Learn all about the polysilicon market