Solar installations in China start to recover from the low point

The third quarter was the first with a positive growth rate since Chinese PV installations crashed in mid-2025. An annual volume of 200 GW_AC is possible in 2026.

The silver lining that appeared on the horizon of the Chinese solar market in June was confirmed in the third quarter: New PV installations from July through September grew to 38.76 gigawatts, measured by the alternating current (AC) power output of the inverters – an increase by 38.1% year over year (YoY – blue curve in the chart above).

This is the first positive growth rate after four quarters of decline since China introduced a market-based remuneration system for electricity from PV power plants in June 2025. However, the volume was still 6.4% below the 41.39 GW_AC installed in the first quarter and even 33.6% below the level of installations in the third quarter of 2024 (pink curve in the chart). This shows that the pace of recovery remains moderate.

Yet, a trend of slight acceleration can be observed: The installation volumes of 14.08 GW_AC in July, 11.04 GW_AC in August and 13.64 GW_AC in September were 3.04 GW_AC, 3.68 GW_AC and 3.98 GW_AC, respectively, above the level in the prior-year month.

If this trend of growth acceleration by roughly 0.5 GW_AC per month should continue in the fourth quarter, annual installations could still reach 200 GW_AC in 2026. The highest hurdle that needs to be crossed is the volume of 40 GW_AC installed in December 2025.

Even if installations in the fourth quarter remain below the 75 GW_AC achieved in the prior-year quarter, it seems likely that growth will return in the first half of 2027. In that case, the Chinese solar market would still recover more quickly than during the downturn between 2018 and early 2020: At the time, seven of eight quarters saw a decline before installations resumed growth.