Why you should not write multicrystalline silicon off too early

The European PV conference (EU PVSEC) has shown that multicrystalline solar cells are still in the game.

The current upswing of monocrystalline technology is mainly driven by the rapid expansion of Chinese monocrystalline wafer, cell and module manufacturer Longi (and of Zhonghuan Semiconductor) as well as Chinese industrial policy.

It began with the Chinese Top Runner Program in 2015, which has favored monocrystalline modules, and continues with the government’s cap on domestic PV installations, which ultimately eliminates smaller Chinese players that produce multicrystalline modules.

PV Tech Research predicts that multicrystalline technology will almost be wiped out by 2022.

However, Bernreuter Research thinks this forecast is overdone. Three out of seven members of the Silicon Module Super League – CanadianSolar, Hanwha Q-Cells and GCL System Integration Technology – are strong on multi and believe in the future of this technology. In India, the world’s third-largest PV market, multi has a market share of around 98%.

Longi has an interest in painting a rosy picture of mono. For sure, its market share will further rise, but a multi doomsday scenario overstates the case.