News on demand

News on suppliers, market trends and technology innovations in polysilicon and wafer production is selected, assessed and written for you by Bernreuter Research.

Compund annual growth rates of global PV installations 1975 - 2023

Why 4 terawatts of annual PV installations in 2030 are possible

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A new analysis presented by Bernreuter Research at the PV CellTech conference supports a scenario from Dr. Dahlmeier Financial Risk Management AG , which is based on an annual PV growth rate of 36%.

Chart of the top ten PV markets in 2023, forecast contained in the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027

China saves its solar industry with installation record of 260 GW

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China’s solar market once again served as a backstop for the domestic photovoltaic (PV) industry, which has built up massive overcapacity. The country set up a new installation record of 260 GW (DC) in 2023.

Monthly polysilicon price average from October 2011 through December 2023

Why the pork cycle has returned to the polysilicon market

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A period of weak demand until 2020 laid the ground for a polysilicon shortage that has triggered excessive capacity expansion in China. Now overcapacity provokes the next shakeout.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

Polysilicon price decline in 2023 vs. 2011 – an amazing parallel

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The comparison between the polysilicon price developments in 2023 and 2011 is the most precise forecast Bernreuter Research has ever made. As it has turned out, the price dropped by 66% in both years.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

The crash of the polysilicon price was merely a matter of time

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After the crash below US$10 per kg, the global polysilicon price has not yet reached its bottom. This lies below US$7 per kg – the cash cost level of the last producer needed to satisfy demand.

Curves of the global polysilicon price average from January 2022 through the first week of January 2023 (dark blue) and from January 2021 through the first week of January 2022 (pink)

Polysilicon price slump accelerates, but will not last very long

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Since the last week of December 2022, the slump of the polysilicon price has accelerated drastically; however, there are good arguments that the price collapse will soon come to a halt.

Curve of the polysilicon spot price in 2021

First rays of light at the end of the polysilicon high-price tunnel

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After a massive price surge during 2021, signs are piling up that the polysilicon price is about to come down from its high level of US$36/kg. But a new price increase could follow in 2022.

New polysilicon production capacities (in metric tons) in 2022

New polysilicon entrants in China: Nothing learnt from the past

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The current polysilicon shortage has triggered so many new Chinese projects with a total capacity of more than one million tons that the industry will again face oversupply in the coming years.

Price changes in the solar value chain (polysilicon, wafer, cell, module) from January through May 2021

Has the polysilicon spot price rally reached its peak now?

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After the polysilicon spot price has skyrocketed by almost 160% from US$11/kg in early 2021 to $28.50/kg now, there are first signs that the price rally will slow down.

Price changes in the solar value chain (polysilicon, wafer, cell, module) in the first quarter of 2021

Why the spot price for polysilicon is going through the roof

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In the first quarter, the spot price for solar-grade polysilicon soared by nearly 50% – from US$11 to more than $16 per kg. Solar cell manufacturers played a key role in the price rally.

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