News on forecast

News on suppliers, market trends and technology innovations in polysilicon and wafer production is selected, assessed and written for you by Bernreuter Research.

Compund annual growth rates of global PV installations 1975 - 2023

Why 4 terawatts of annual PV installations in 2030 are possible

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A new analysis presented by Bernreuter Research at the PV CellTech conference supports a scenario from Dr. Dahlmeier Financial Risk Management AG , which is based on an annual PV growth rate of 36%.

Chart of the top ten PV markets in 2023, forecast contained in the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027

China saves its solar industry with installation record of 260 GW

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China’s solar market once again served as a backstop for the domestic photovoltaic (PV) industry, which has built up massive overcapacity. The country set up a new installation record of 260 GW (DC) in 2023.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

Polysilicon price decline in 2023 vs. 2011 – an amazing parallel

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The comparison between the polysilicon price developments in 2023 and 2011 is the most precise forecast Bernreuter Research has ever made. As it has turned out, the price dropped by 66% in both years.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

The crash of the polysilicon price was merely a matter of time

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After the crash below US$10 per kg, the global polysilicon price has not yet reached its bottom. This lies below US$7 per kg – the cash cost level of the last producer needed to satisfy demand.

Polysilicon EBITDA margins of Daqo, OCI, REC Silicon and Wacker from Q3 2018 through Q3 2019

Polysilicon producer Daqo breaks the cash cost barrier of $6/kg

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After weaker results in the second quarter due to maintenance, China-based polysilicon manufacturer Daqo New Energy achieved so far unthinkable cash production costs of US$5.85/kg in the third quarter.

polysilicon chunks

GCL Poly’s reference to rebounding polysilicon prices is outdated

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Indeed, polysilicon prices on the Chinese spot market slightly recovered in July and stabilized in August. But they have been on the downtrend again since mid-September.

polysilicon chunks

China’s PV hard stop could cause polysilicon oversupply in 2018

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The Chinese government’s decision to reduce the approval of new photovoltaic (PV) installations drastically will have a severe impact on the global PV supply chain.

Wacker’s U.S. polysilicon plant in Charleston, Tennessee

Bernreuter expects 120 GW PV market, no polysilicon glut in 2018

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Bernreuter Research expects a 120 GW PV market in 2018, with approximately 65 GW of new installations in China, and no polysilicon oversupply.

SMA’s market outlook of global new PV installations 2017 - 2020

SMA: Global PV installations of 98 GW in 2017, 127 GW in 2020

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Major solar inverter manufacturer SMA anticipates 98 gigawatts (GW) of newly installed PV power worldwide in 2017. Its outlook for 2020 is conservative: only 127 GW.

polysilicon chunks

Chinese industry association confirms polysilicon overcapacity

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The Silicon Branch of the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association expects that polysilicon oversupply will exacerbate through 2019 or longer, Patrick Ryan reports in his blog.

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