News on oversupply

News on suppliers, market trends and technology innovations in polysilicon and wafer production is selected, assessed and written for you by Bernreuter Research.

Polysilicon spot prices from December 2024 through March 26, 2025

Why the polysilicon price has been cemented and can’t rise soon

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The huge inventory mountain piled up by Chinese polysilicon manufacturers in 2024 is hardly carried off. This is why the polysilicon price has not risen despite a price rally downstream.

The ten most popular posts from Bernreuter Research on LinkedIn in 2024

The top 10 posts from Bernreuter Research on LinkedIn in 2024

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The news about the severe accident that occurred at OCI Malaysia’s polysilicon plant last August is the number one among the top ten posts from Bernreuter Research on LinkedIn in 2024.

 

Key performance indicators of Tongwei, GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy and Xinte Energy in the first half of 2024

Top four polysilicon makers incur net losses in first half of 2024

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The polysilicon price crash in China left its mark on the earnings of the world’s four largest polysilicon manufacturers Tongwei, GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy and Xinte Energy in the first half of 2024.

Wafer production capacities in and outside China 2023/2024

Why wafers are the Achilles’ heel of a non-Chinese supply chain

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No other link of the solar supply chain is more dominated by China than the production of silicon ingots and wafers. There are reasons why non-Chinese wafer plants will hardly flourish anytime soon.

Chart of the top ten PV markets in 2023, forecast contained in the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027

China saves its solar industry with installation record of 260 GW

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China’s solar market once again served as a backstop for the domestic photovoltaic (PV) industry, which has built up massive overcapacity. The country set up a new installation record of 260 GW (DC) in 2023.

Monthly polysilicon price average from October 2011 through December 2023

Why the pork cycle has returned to the polysilicon market

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A period of weak demand until 2020 laid the ground for a polysilicon shortage that has triggered excessive capacity expansion in China. Now overcapacity provokes the next shakeout.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

Polysilicon price decline in 2023 vs. 2011 – an amazing parallel

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The comparison between the polysilicon price developments in 2023 and 2011 is the most precise forecast Bernreuter Research has ever made. As it has turned out, the price dropped by 66% in both years.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

The crash of the polysilicon price was merely a matter of time

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After the crash below US$10 per kg, the global polysilicon price has not yet reached its bottom. This lies below US$7 per kg – the cash cost level of the last producer needed to satisfy demand.

Curves of the global polysilicon price average from January 2022 through the first week of January 2023 (dark blue) and from January 2021 through the first week of January 2022 (pink)

Polysilicon price slump accelerates, but will not last very long

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Since the last week of December 2022, the slump of the polysilicon price has accelerated drastically; however, there are good arguments that the price collapse will soon come to a halt.

New polysilicon production capacities (in metric tons) in 2022

New polysilicon entrants in China: Nothing learnt from the past

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The current polysilicon shortage has triggered so many new Chinese projects with a total capacity of more than one million tons that the industry will again face oversupply in the coming years.

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