News on oversupply

News on suppliers, market trends and technology innovations in polysilicon and wafer production is selected, assessed and written for you by Bernreuter Research.

Wafer production capacities in and outside China 2023/2024

Why wafers are the Achilles’ heel of a non-Chinese supply chain

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No other link of the solar supply chain is more dominated by China than the production of silicon ingots and wafers. There are reasons why non-Chinese wafer plants will hardly flourish anytime soon.

Chart of the top ten PV markets in 2023, forecast contained in the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027

China saves its solar industry with installation record of 260 GW

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China’s solar market once again served as a backstop for the domestic photovoltaic (PV) industry, which has built up massive overcapacity. The country set up a new installation record of 260 GW (DC) in 2023.

Monthly polysilicon price average from October 2011 through December 2023

Why the pork cycle has returned to the polysilicon market

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A period of weak demand until 2020 laid the ground for a polysilicon shortage that has triggered excessive capacity expansion in China. Now overcapacity provokes the next shakeout.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

Polysilicon price decline in 2023 vs. 2011 – an amazing parallel

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The comparison between the polysilicon price developments in 2023 and 2011 is the most precise forecast Bernreuter Research has ever made. As it has turned out, the price dropped by 66% in both years.

Polysilicon price trend 2023 versus 2011

The crash of the polysilicon price was merely a matter of time

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After the crash below US$10 per kg, the global polysilicon price has not yet reached its bottom. This lies below US$7 per kg – the cash cost level of the last producer needed to satisfy demand.

Curves of the global polysilicon price average from January 2022 through the first week of January 2023 (dark blue) and from January 2021 through the first week of January 2022 (pink)

Polysilicon price slump accelerates, but will not last very long

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Since the last week of December 2022, the slump of the polysilicon price has accelerated drastically; however, there are good arguments that the price collapse will soon come to a halt.

New polysilicon production capacities (in metric tons) in 2022

New polysilicon entrants in China: Nothing learnt from the past

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The current polysilicon shortage has triggered so many new Chinese projects with a total capacity of more than one million tons that the industry will again face oversupply in the coming years.

Hemlock Semiconductor’s polysilicon plant in Hemlock, Michigan (USA)

More job cuts at U.S. polysilicon maker Hemlock Semiconductor

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U.S.-based polysilicon manufacturer Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation will lay off 50 employees, the company announced internally on June 18.

polysilicon chunks

China’s PV hard stop could cause polysilicon oversupply in 2018

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The Chinese government’s decision to reduce the approval of new photovoltaic (PV) installations drastically will have a severe impact on the global PV supply chain.

Wacker’s U.S. polysilicon plant in Charleston, Tennessee

Bernreuter expects 120 GW PV market, no polysilicon glut in 2018

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Bernreuter Research expects a 120 GW PV market in 2018, with approximately 65 GW of new installations in China, and no polysilicon oversupply.

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