The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024

Overview of the report

A major shakeout and the rapidly rising demand for mono-grade material have thoroughly reshaped the polysilicon industry in recent years. What will this industry look like in the future? Do OCI and Wacker still have a chance against low-cost Chinese plants? What effect could a potential U.S. law against forced labor in Xinjiang have on the four polysilicon plants in this region? How large will the polysilicon demand be for high-efficiency n-type solar cells? Will the massive expansion of the Chinese big players, led by Tongwei, result in new oversupply? How will the spot price develop through 2024?

These and many other questions are answered in The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024. If you want to be up to date on the latest technological developments, the decisive market trends and future price points, the 76-page report provides you with all of that. It analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you navigate in a volatile market.

A wealth of data, analyzed comprehensibly

With the report, you will get in particular

• data on electricity consumption and power tariffs of the leading Chinese polysilicon manufacturers;
• capital expenditure (capex) figures for 15 new polysilicon projects, including those using fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology for granular polysilicon;
• cash cost data on 25 solar-grade polysilicon plants still active worldwide in 2020;
• production volumes and capacities of 42 electronic-grade and solar-grade factories from 2016 through 2024;
• market shares of the top ten manufacturers, production technologies and regions, including Xinjiang in China;
• a table containing more than 30 polysilicon sales contracts (supplier, customer, contract period and volume), continuously updated as an addendum;
• data on annual polysilicon import volumes into China by country from 2010 through 2020;
• a comprehensive data set on market shares of various solar cell technologies, cell efficiencies, wafer thickness and kerf loss from 2015 through 2025;
• a scenario of the polysilicon demand for high-efficiency n-type solar cells through 2024;
• a forecast of semiconductor wafer shipments through 2024;
• four sophisticated scenarios of polysilicon supply and demand of the solar and semiconductor industries through 2024; and
• polysilicon industry cost curves and spot price forecasts through 2024.

All of these details are analyzed thoroughly and comprehensibly. Thus, The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024 provides you with comprehensive, detailed and up-to-date information on the global markets for solar-grade and electronic-grade polysilicon.

Polysilicon market outlook with unique details

• The introduction explains how monocrystalline solar cells and modules could grab so much market share from the once dominant multicrystalline technology within just three years.
• The technology chapter analyzes why the prevalent Siemens process has remained unchallenged, how much progress fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology for producing polysilicon granules has made to come out of its market niche, and what the fate of upgraded metallurgical-grade (UMG) silicon looks like.
• The capacity chapter provides a concise overview of plant shutdowns, capacity expansions and greenfield projects. A comprehensive table lists all capacity additions and changes between 2016 and 2023.
• The supply chapter presents four different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 42 polysilicon plants from 2016 through 2024. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers, points out China’s strongly growing influence among the world’s polysilicon production regions, and reveals the increasing extent of industry concentration. In view of a U.S. draft bill against forced labor in Xinjiang, the chapter also quantifies the share of Xinjiang-based plants in global solar-grade polysilicon production. Finally, it details the production volumes of electronic-grade polysilicon for each manufacturer and explains purity specifications for electronic grade.
• The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the semiconductor and photovoltaic (PV) industries from 2016 through 2024. It uses a bottom-up approach, based on forecasts for 29 countries and world regions, in order to arrive at three different scenarios of global PV demand. The 14 most important countries and regions have been surveyed individually. In particular, the chapter provides a wealth of data on market shares of various solar cell technologies, cell efficiencies, wafer thickness and kerf loss, which all influence the specific silicon consumption.
• The balance chapter reconstructs the supply/demand balance for electronic-grade polysilicon since 2009, compares the various demand scenarios with supply on the total polysilicon market through 2024, and takes a special look at how close the market-clearing scenario (no oversupply) came to actual PV installations in the past. In addition, the chapter presents a scenario of the polysilicon demand for high-efficiency n-type solar cells.
• The duty chapter provides background on the anti-dumping measures of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and shows data from customs statistics to assess the effect of Chinese anti-dumping duties on polysilicon imports from 2010 through 2020.
• The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2017. Based on an analysis of industry cost curves, the chapter forecasts how the spot price will develop through 2024. It also provides data on cash production costs of 25 polysilicon plants from 2020 through 2024.
• A directory of 70 web sites from manufacturers, aspirants, equipment suppliers and engineering firms supplements the polysilicon market report.

Who the report is useful for

The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024 is an ideal market guide for:

• polysilicon, solar and semiconductor manufacturers
• equipment suppliers and engineering firms
• investors, consultants, analysts and researchers alike.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Introduction: The Monocrystalline Sea Change

PERC technology has changed the efficiency game
Significant cost reduction for monocrystalline ingots and wafers
The balance has tipped to mono

2. Technologies: The Field Narrows

2.1 The Siemens Process

2.2 Fluidized Bed Reactor Technology

Wacker Chemie (Germany)
Asia Silicon (China)
REC Silicon (USA)
TianREC (China)
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (China)
Sitec (Germany, USA)/QSTec (Qatar)
TianREC and GCL-Poly have to prove their claims
Asia Silicon’s DCS-fed reactor may have potential
Will the vibrational approach be taken up again?

2.3 Upgraded Metallurgical-Grade Silicon

REC Solar Norway
Ferrosolar (Spain)
Silicor Materials (USA/China)

3. Capacities: The Second Shakeout Wave

No chance for medium-sized Chinese manufacturers
The end of solar-grade polysilicon production in South Korea
Non-starters in Taiwan and Qatar
Mainly electronic grade made in the USA
Total capacity of 275,000 MT eliminated

4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2024

China’s market share is approaching 80%
Supply constraints possible in 2021
Overcapacity in 2022 and 2023
The issue of forced labor in Xinjiang
Supply and specifications of electronic-grade polysilicon

5. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2024

5.1 Demand from the semiconductor industry

5.2 Demand from the photovoltaic industry

Analysis of global PV installations 2006 - 2019
Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts
Extrapolation from the guidance of top module suppliers
Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2020 - 2024

Asia-Pacific: China · India · Japan · Vietnam · Australia · South Korea
Americas: USA · Mexico · Brazil
Europe: Spain · Ukraine · Germany · The Netherlands
Middle East & Africa (MEA)

Plausibility test: Comparison with other PV installation scenarios
A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries
From installation to production volumes
Time lag between polysilicon and solar cell production
Drivers of specific silicon consumption

6. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2024

6.1 The market for electronic-grade polysilicon

6.2 The total polysilicon market

Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)
Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (high, base and low case)
The old cyclical pattern is gone
Growing demand for n-type material a chance for Wacker

7. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates

Tit for tat rulings on punitive duties
The big loophole offered by processing trade
One loophole closed, others getting very small
South Korea knocked out, USA shut out

8. Prices: The Next Valley behind the Peak

2017: Hiccup before the installation rush
2018: Spot price below the historical mark of $10/kg
2019: Chinese low-cost plants amplify price pressure
2020: Unexpected price spike after record low
2020 - 2024: After the surge, the next slump looms

9. Conclusion: On the Eve of Dynamic Growth

Appendix: Directory of Company Web Sites

A. Manufacturers
B. CVD reactor suppliers
C. Providers of reactor power supply systems
D. Hydrochlorination technology providers
E. Other technology providers/consultants
F. Engineering, procurement & construction firms

List of Tables and Figures

1. Introduction: The Monocrystalline Sea Change

Market share of monocrystalline solar cells 2015 - 2025

2. Technologies: The Field Narrows

Capital expenditures for polysilicon plants in China 2015 - 2020
Specific energy and electricity consumption of polysilicon plants in China 2007 - 2019
Electricity rates and cash costs of leading polysilicon producers in China
Capital expenditures for FBR polysilicon plants

3. Capacities: The Second Shakeout Wave

Supply contracts (in MT) of Tongwei, Daqo, Xinte, Asia Silicon, OCI and GCL-Poly
Polysilicon capacity expansion/contraction in MT 2017 - 2023

4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2024

Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers
Polysilicon production by region (in MT) 2016 - 2024 (base case)
Polysilicon production by technology (in MT) 2016 - 2024 (base case)
Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Scenario 2 (high case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Scenario 4 (low case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Top ten manufacturers in 2019
Top ten manufacturers in 2020
Top ten manufacturers in 2021
Top ten manufacturers in 2022
Top ten manufacturers in 2023
Top ten manufacturers in 2024
Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2019 - 2024
Shares of Xinjiang-based plants in global solar-grade polysilicon production (in MT)
Company specifications and national standards for high-purity/electronic-grade polysilicon
Electronic-grade polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024

5. Demand: Market perspectives through 2024

Polysilicon demand from the semiconductor industry 2016 - 2024
Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2006 - 2019
PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2006 - 2019
Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2019
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2020
Shipment results and guidance of the top five module suppliers in 2019/2020
Market share of the top five solar module suppliers 2016 - 2019
Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2020
Global PV installations in 2016 - 2019; base-case scenario for 2020 - 2024 (in GW)
Installation scenarios of BNEF, SolarPower Europe and Bernreuter for 2020 - 2024
Forecast deviations of Bernreuter Reports issued in 2012, 2014 and 2016
Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1945
Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)
Global crystalline silicon solar cell and thin-film module production volumes 2007 - 2019
Ratio between cell/module production and PV system installation volumes 2007 - 2019
Scenarios of crystalline silicon cell production volumes (in GW) 2020 - 2024
Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)
Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and cell production (in weeks)
Specific silicon consumption of cell production (in g/W) 2016 - 2025
Share of first quarter in full year cell/module production/shipment volumes
Polysilicon consumption/demand of the PV industry (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2019
Scenarios of the PV industry’s polysilicon consumption/demand (in 1,000 MT) 2020 - 2024
Details of the scenario for specific silicon consumption 2015 - 2025

6. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2024

Balance of electronic-grade (EG) polysilicon supply and demand (in MT) 2009 - 2019
Scenario for the balance of EG polysilicon supply/demand (in MT) 2020 - 2024
Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2019
Scenarios for the demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2020 - 2024
Balance of total polysilicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2019
Unconfined polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1) and demand scenarios 2016 - 2024
Scenarios of the supply/demand balance with unconfined supply (in 1,000 MT) 2020 - 2024
Market-clearing demand scenario 2020 - 2024 (Supply Scenario 1)
PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2020 - 2024
PV installations in the market-clearing demand scenarios 2016 - 2020 and actual results
Polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2016 - 2024
Scenarios of the polysilicon supply/demand balance (low, base, high case) 2020 - 2024
Scenarios of polysilicon demand for n-type monocrystalline solar cells 2020 - 2024

7. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates

Duty rates for imports from the USA, South Korea and the EU into China
Import volumes and shares of main importers as well as processing trade 2010 - 2020

8. Prices: The Next Valley behind the Peak

Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2017
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2018
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2019
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2020
Trend of the monthly polysilicon spot price average from Jan. 2014 through Nov. 2020
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2020 - 2021 (base-case scenario)
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2022 - 2024 (base-case scenario)
Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon spot price (in $/kg) 2020 - 2024
Cash costs of polysilicon manufacturers (in $/kg) 2020 - 2024 (base case)

Companies Covered

USA

Wacker Polysilicon North America
Hemlock Semiconductor
REC Silicon
Mitsubishi Polysilicon America

Germany

Wacker Chemie
Sitec

Japan

Tokuyama
Osaka Titanium technologies
Mitsubishi Materials

South Korea

OCI Company
Hanwha Chemical
Hankook Silicon
SMP

Arabian Peninsula

Qatar Solar Technologies
Polysilicon Technology Company

China

Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon (Tongwei)
Inner Mongolia Tongwei
Yunnan Tongwei
Jiangsu Zhongneng (GCL-Poly)
Xinjiang GCL
Leshan GCL
Xinte Energy (TBEA)
Daqo New Energy
Xinjiang East Hope
Asia Silicon
Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tianhong REC
Inner Mongolia Dunan PV
Jiangsu Kangbo
Inner Mongolia Erdos Polysilicon
Inner Mongolia Dongli PV
Guodian Jingyang
Inner Mongolia Shenzhou
Jiangsu Xinhua Semiconductor (GCL)
LDK PV Silicon
Yichang CSG
Sichuan Renesola
Yunnan Metallurgical
Henan Hengxing
Luoyang China Silicon
Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower
Shaanxi Tianhong
Ningxia Dongmeng
Xinjiang Hejing
Hubei Jingxing
Hebei Dongming

Taiwan

Powertec Energy

UMG silicon manufacturers

REC Solar Norway (Elkem Solar)
Ferrosolar
Silicor Materials

“Very detailed report on market history and future trends”

Bernreuter Research provides a very detailed report that covers the history of the market but also the future trends along with the drivers behind them. I highly recommend The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024.

“Instrumental in mapping the solar supply chain”

Bernreuter’s Polysilicon Market Outlook contains detailed quantitative information, such as historical production capacities, forecasts and technical information, as well as comprehensive information on the competitive landscape. The report was instrumental in the work that my organization is carrying out in mapping the solar supply chain. Moreover, Johannes has been helpful in providing supplemental context and information. I highly recommend this work and his services.

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