Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates
1. Introduction: The Monocrystalline Sea Change
PERC technology has changed the efficiency game
Significant cost reduction for monocrystalline ingots and wafers
The balance has tipped to mono
2. Technologies: The Field Narrows
2.1 The Siemens Process
2.2 Fluidized Bed Reactor Technology
Wacker Chemie (Germany)
Asia Silicon (China)
REC Silicon (USA)
TianREC (China)
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (China)
Sitec (Germany, USA)/QSTec (Qatar)
TianREC and GCL-Poly have to prove their claims
Asia Silicon’s DCS-fed reactor may have potential
Will the vibrational approach be taken up again?
2.3 Upgraded Metallurgical-Grade Silicon
REC Solar Norway
Ferrosolar (Spain)
Silicor Materials (USA/China)
3. Capacities: The Second Shakeout Wave
No chance for medium-sized Chinese manufacturers
The end of solar-grade polysilicon production in South Korea
Non-starters in Taiwan and Qatar
Mainly electronic grade made in the USA
Total capacity of 275,000 MT eliminated
4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2024
China’s market share is approaching 80%
Supply constraints possible in 2021
Overcapacity in 2022 and 2023
The issue of forced labor in Xinjiang
Supply and specifications of electronic-grade polysilicon
5. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2024
5.1 Demand from the semiconductor industry
5.2 Demand from the photovoltaic industry
Analysis of global PV installations 2006 - 2019
Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts
Extrapolation from the guidance of top module suppliers
Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2020 - 2024
Asia-Pacific: China · India · Japan · Vietnam · Australia · South Korea
Americas: USA · Mexico · Brazil
Europe: Spain · Ukraine · Germany · The Netherlands
Middle East & Africa (MEA)
Plausibility test: Comparison with other PV installation scenarios
A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries
From installation to production volumes
Time lag between polysilicon and solar cell production
Drivers of specific silicon consumption
6. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2024
6.1 The market for electronic-grade polysilicon
6.2 The total polysilicon market
Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)
Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (high, base and low case)
The old cyclical pattern is gone
Growing demand for n-type material a chance for Wacker
7. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates
Tit for tat rulings on punitive duties
The big loophole offered by processing trade
One loophole closed, others getting very small
South Korea knocked out, USA shut out
8. Prices: The Next Valley behind the Peak
2017: Hiccup before the installation rush
2018: Spot price below the historical mark of $10/kg
2019: Chinese low-cost plants amplify price pressure
2020: Unexpected price spike after record low
2020 - 2024: After the surge, the next slump looms
9. Conclusion: On the Eve of Dynamic Growth
Appendix: Directory of Company Web Sites
A. Manufacturers
B. CVD reactor suppliers
C. Providers of reactor power supply systems
D. Hydrochlorination technology providers
E. Other technology providers/consultants
F. Engineering, procurement & construction firms
List of Tables and Figures
1. Introduction: The Monocrystalline Sea Change
Market share of monocrystalline solar cells 2015 - 2025
2. Technologies: The Field Narrows
Capital expenditures for polysilicon plants in China 2015 - 2020
Specific energy and electricity consumption of polysilicon plants in China 2007 - 2019
Electricity rates and cash costs of leading polysilicon producers in China
Capital expenditures for FBR polysilicon plants
3. Capacities: The Second Shakeout Wave
Supply contracts (in MT) of Tongwei, Daqo, Xinte, Asia Silicon, OCI and GCL-Poly
Polysilicon capacity expansion/contraction in MT 2017 - 2023
4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2024
Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers
Polysilicon production by region (in MT) 2016 - 2024 (base case)
Polysilicon production by technology (in MT) 2016 - 2024 (base case)
Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Scenario 2 (high case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Scenario 4 (low case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
Top ten manufacturers in 2019
Top ten manufacturers in 2020
Top ten manufacturers in 2021
Top ten manufacturers in 2022
Top ten manufacturers in 2023
Top ten manufacturers in 2024
Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2019 - 2024
Shares of Xinjiang-based plants in global solar-grade polysilicon production (in MT)
Company specifications and national standards for high-purity/electronic-grade polysilicon
Electronic-grade polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2016 - 2024
5. Demand: Market perspectives through 2024
Polysilicon demand from the semiconductor industry 2016 - 2024
Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2006 - 2019
PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2006 - 2019
Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2019
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2020
Shipment results and guidance of the top five module suppliers in 2019/2020
Market share of the top five solar module suppliers 2016 - 2019
Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2020
Global PV installations in 2016 - 2019; base-case scenario for 2020 - 2024 (in GW)
Installation scenarios of BNEF, SolarPower Europe and Bernreuter for 2020 - 2024
Forecast deviations of Bernreuter Reports issued in 2012, 2014 and 2016
Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1945
Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)
Global crystalline silicon solar cell and thin-film module production volumes 2007 - 2019
Ratio between cell/module production and PV system installation volumes 2007 - 2019
Scenarios of crystalline silicon cell production volumes (in GW) 2020 - 2024
Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)
Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and cell production (in weeks)
Specific silicon consumption of cell production (in g/W) 2016 - 2025
Share of first quarter in full year cell/module production/shipment volumes
Polysilicon consumption/demand of the PV industry (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2019
Scenarios of the PV industry’s polysilicon consumption/demand (in 1,000 MT) 2020 - 2024
Details of the scenario for specific silicon consumption 2015 - 2025
6. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2024
Balance of electronic-grade (EG) polysilicon supply and demand (in MT) 2009 - 2019
Scenario for the balance of EG polysilicon supply/demand (in MT) 2020 - 2024
Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2019
Scenarios for the demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2020 - 2024
Balance of total polysilicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2019
Unconfined polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1) and demand scenarios 2016 - 2024
Scenarios of the supply/demand balance with unconfined supply (in 1,000 MT) 2020 - 2024
Market-clearing demand scenario 2020 - 2024 (Supply Scenario 1)
PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2020 - 2024
PV installations in the market-clearing demand scenarios 2016 - 2020 and actual results
Polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2016 - 2024
Scenarios of the polysilicon supply/demand balance (low, base, high case) 2020 - 2024
Scenarios of polysilicon demand for n-type monocrystalline solar cells 2020 - 2024
7. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates
Duty rates for imports from the USA, South Korea and the EU into China
Import volumes and shares of main importers as well as processing trade 2010 - 2020
8. Prices: The Next Valley behind the Peak
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2017
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2018
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2019
Development of the polysilicon spot price in 2020
Trend of the monthly polysilicon spot price average from Jan. 2014 through Nov. 2020
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2020 - 2021 (base-case scenario)
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2022 - 2024 (base-case scenario)
Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon spot price (in $/kg) 2020 - 2024
Cash costs of polysilicon manufacturers (in $/kg) 2020 - 2024 (base case)
Companies Covered
USA
Wacker Polysilicon North America
Hemlock Semiconductor
REC Silicon
Mitsubishi Polysilicon America
Germany
Wacker Chemie
Sitec
Japan
Tokuyama
Osaka Titanium technologies
Mitsubishi Materials
South Korea
OCI Company
Hanwha Chemical
Hankook Silicon
SMP
Arabian Peninsula
Qatar Solar Technologies
Polysilicon Technology Company
China
Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon (Tongwei)
Inner Mongolia Tongwei
Yunnan Tongwei
Jiangsu Zhongneng (GCL-Poly)
Xinjiang GCL
Leshan GCL
Xinte Energy (TBEA)
Daqo New Energy
Xinjiang East Hope
Asia Silicon
Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tianhong REC
Inner Mongolia Dunan PV
Jiangsu Kangbo
Inner Mongolia Erdos Polysilicon
Inner Mongolia Dongli PV
Guodian Jingyang
Inner Mongolia Shenzhou
Jiangsu Xinhua Semiconductor (GCL)
LDK PV Silicon
Yichang CSG
Sichuan Renesola
Yunnan Metallurgical
Henan Hengxing
Luoyang China Silicon
Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower
Shaanxi Tianhong
Ningxia Dongmeng
Xinjiang Hejing
Hubei Jingxing
Hebei Dongming
Taiwan
Powertec Energy
UMG silicon manufacturers
REC Solar Norway (Elkem Solar)
Ferrosolar
Silicor Materials