The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027

Overview of the report

Fierce cut-throat competition is dominating the polysilicon industry again. What will this industry look like after a shakeout? How will the spot price develop through 2027? What effect does the U.S. import ban have against products made with forced labor in Xinjiang? Which polysilicon manufacturers do source silicon metal from Xinjiang? Will quartz for the production of silicon metal run short? What are the prospects for polysilicon plants outside China? How large will the polysilicon demand be for high-efficiency n-type solar cells?

These and many other questions are answered by The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027. If you would like to be up to date on the decisive market trends, the latest technological developments and future price points, the 102-page report provides you with all of that. It analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you navigate in a volatile market.

A wealth of data, analyzed comprehensibly

With the report, you will get in particular

• data on electricity consumption and power tariffs of the leading Chinese polysilicon manufacturers;
• capital expenditure (capex) figures for 36 polysilicon projects, including those using fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology for granular polysilicon;
• cash cost data on 30 solar-grade polysilicon plants worldwide;
• a list of 63 polysilicon sales contracts containing supplier and customer name, contract volume, start date and expiry;
• production volumes and capacities of 45 solar-grade and electronic-grade factories from 2020 through 2027;
• market shares of the top ten manufacturers, production technologies and regions, including Xinjiang in China;
• NEW: an overview of the main silicon metal suppliers of the top seven polysilicon manufacturers in China;
• NEW: a list of captive silicon metal smelters planned by polysilicon manufacturers worldwide;
• data on annual polysilicon import volumes into China by country from 2011 through 2022;
• a comprehensive data set on market shares of various solar cell technologies, cell efficiencies, wafer thickness and kerf loss from 2018 through 2028;
• a scenario of the polysilicon demand for high-efficiency n-type solar cells through 2027;
• a forecast of semiconductor wafer shipments through 2027;
• NEW: impurity specifications and measurement data for electronic-grade polysilicon;
• NEW: four sophisticated scenarios of polysilicon supply and demand of the solar and semiconductor industries through 2027, based on a novel forecast methodology;
• polysilicon industry cost curves and spot price forecasts for China through 2027;
• NEW: a price model for non-Chinese polysilicon;
• NEW: an assessment of the global quartz reserves for silicon metal production and the consumption for polysilicon, silicones, aluminum-silicon alloys and silicon-based anodes for lithium-ion batteries by 2030.

All of these details are analyzed thoroughly and comprehensibly. Thus, The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 provides you with comprehensive, detailed and up-to-date information on the global markets for solar-grade and electronic-grade polysilicon.

Polysilicon market outlook with unique details

• The introduction describes why the polysilicon industry is like a super tanker with a long brake path, how the increasing Chinese share in production has changed this behavior, and why the pork cycle from oversupply to shortage to oversupply has returned after a long break.
• The background chapter explains why monocrystalline solar cells and modules were able to replace the once dominant multicrystalline technology within just five years and how almost the same will happen between p-type and high-efficiency n-type cells.
• The technology chapter analyzes why the prevalent Siemens process has remained unchallenged, how much progress fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology has made for producing polysilicon granules, and which activities are underway to upgrade silicon kerf loss from wafer sawing, using metallurgical processes.
• The capacity chapter lists 63 polysilicon supply contracts and screens the construction projects of 36 new Chinese and three new Indian entrants and aspirants. A comprehensive table provides a concise overview of all plant shutdowns, capacity expansions and greenfield projects implemented and planned between 2019 and 2027. The chapter concludes with three trends that are shaping the global polysilicon industry today.
• The supply chapter presents four different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 45 polysilicon plants from 2020 through 2027. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers, points out China’s dominance among the world’s polysilicon production regions, and outlines how an industry shakeout could evolve. Finally, it details the production volumes of electronic-grade polysilicon for each manufacturer and shows impurity specifications and measurement data for electronic grade.
• The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the semiconductor and photovoltaic (PV) industries from 2017 through 2027. It analyzes the downside bias of traditional PV forecast models and develops a new approach to predicting global PV installations. Moreover, the chapter provides a wealth of data on market shares of various solar cell technologies, cell efficiencies, wafer thickness and kerf loss, which all influence the specific silicon consumption.
• The balance chapter reconstructs the supply/demand balance for electronic-grade polysilicon since 2009, compares the various demand scenarios with supply on the total polysilicon market through 2027, and takes a special look at how close the market-clearing scenario (no oversupply) came to actual PV installations in the past. In addition, the chapter presents a scenario of the polysilicon demand for high-efficiency n-type solar cells.
• The duty chapter provides background on the anti-dumping measures of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and shows data from customs statistics to assess the effect of Chinese anti-dumping duties on polysilicon imports from 2011 through 2022.
• The chapter on the U.S. import ban against products made with forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China elucidates the coercive nature of labor transfer programs in Xinjiang and reveals who the main silicon metal suppliers of the top seven polysilicon manufacturers in China are. The chapter also quantifies the share of Xinjiang-based plants in the global output of solar-grade polysilicon.
• The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2020. Based on an analysis of Chinese industry cost curves, the chapter forecasts how the spot price will develop in China through 2027. For non-Chinese polysilicon, an alternative analysis explains how the price is formed outside China.
• The outlook chapter assesses the global quartz reserves for silicon metal production and predicts how much of these reserves will be consumed by polysilicon, silicones, aluminum-silicon alloys and silicon-based anodes for lithium-ion batteries by 2030.
• A directory of 73 websites from manufacturers, new entrants, equipment suppliers and engineering firms supplements the polysilicon market report.

Who the report is useful for

The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 is an ideal market guide for:

• polysilicon, solar and semiconductor manufacturers
• equipment suppliers and engineering firms
• investors, consultants, analysts and researchers alike.

Table of Contents

Imprint

Executive Summary

List of Tables and Figures

Companies covered

Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Introduction: The Return of the Pork Cycle

Chinese overcapacity prolongs price down-cycle to twelve years

Why the pork cycle has returned

2. Background: From Multi to Mono to N-type

PERC technology has changed the efficiency game

Significant cost reduction for monocrystalline ingots and wafers

The next rapid transition will be from p-type to n-type

3. Technologies: The Field Narrows

3.1 The Siemens Process

3.2 Fluidized Bed Reactor Technology

Wacker Chemie (Germany)

Asia Silicon (China)

REC Silicon (USA)

TianREC (China)

GCL Technology Holdings (China)

Sitec (Germany, USA)/QSTec (Qatar)

GCL and TianREC have to reduce impurity concentrations

Unclear future for Asia Silicon’s DCS-fed reactor

3.3 Metallurgical Upgrading of Silicon Kerf Loss

REC Solar Norway AS

Hunan Lixin Silicon Material Technology Co., Ltd. (China)

Geely Juneng (Zhejiang) Technology Co., Ltd. (China)

4. Capacities: The Herd Runs into Oversupply

Hardly any chance for medium-sized Chinese manufacturers

The end of solar-grade polysilicon production in South Korea

Shakeout lays the ground for shortage

Expansion push by Chinese incumbent manufacturers

The first wave of Chinese new entrants

The second wave of Chinese new entrants

The third wave of Chinese new entrants

And the wave goes on …

India’s program for a domestic solar value chain

Trends that are shaping the global polysilicon industry

5. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2027

China’s share in solar-grade polysilicon output above 90%

Severe cut-throat competition in 2024

Industry concentration and rising share of FBR technology

Supply and specifications of electronic-grade polysilicon

6. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2027

6.1 Demand from the semiconductor industry

6.2 Demand from the photovoltaic industry

Analysis of global PV installations 2006 - 2022

Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts

Extrapolation from the guidance of top module suppliers

Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2023 - 2027

The downside bias of country-based bottom-up forecasts

Forecast derived from planned module production capacities

Plausibility test: Three-year growth rate of cumulative PV installations

Comparable scenarios and an interim conclusion

A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries

From installation to production volumes

Time lag between polysilicon and wafer production

Drivers of specific silicon consumption

7. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2027

7.1 The market for electronic-grade polysilicon

7.2 The total polysilicon market

Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)

Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (high, base and low case)

The old cyclical pattern is gone

Growing demand for n-type material

8. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates

Tit for tat rulings on punitive duties

The big loophole offered by processing trade

One loophole closed, others getting very small

South Korea knocked out, USA shut out

9. Import Ban: The Chinese Forced-Labor Issue

The coercive nature of labor transfer programs in Xinjiang

Impact of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in the U.S.

Silicon metal sources of the top seven Chinese polysilicon makers

Silicon metal supply of non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers

The Chinese strategy of separate supply chains

10. Prices: The Valley Is Deep after the Peak

2020: The polysilicon price spikes unexpectedly after record low

2021: Major shortage drives the price up to $36/kg

2022: The price rise stops short of $40/kg

2023: Oversupply lets the price crash to below $10/kg

2024 - 2027: The next historical low is just around the corner

11. Outlook: Quartz, the Next Bottleneck

Early warning: Shortage of high-purity quartz sand for crucibles

Limited reserves: Metallurgical-grade quartz for silicon metal

Silicon metal demand: Metallurgical-grade quartz will run short

12. Conclusion: Racing towards a Speed Bump

 

Appendix I: Cash Costs of Polysilicon Manufacturers

Appendix II: Directory of Company Websites

About the author

 

List of Tables and Figures

 

1. Introduction: The Return of the Pork Cycle

Intervals between contract price peaks and troughs 1977 - 2017

Trend of the monthly polysilicon spot price average October 2011 - November 2023

2. Background: From Multi to Mono to N-type

Market shares of monocrystalline and n-type solar cells 2015 - 2028

3. Technologies: The Field Narrows

Capital expenditures for polysilicon plants in China 2015 - 2024

Specific energy and electricity consumption of polysilicon plants in China 2007 - 2022

Electricity sources, rates, consumption and costs of polysilicon producers in China in 2020

Capital expenditures for FBR polysilicon plants

Polysilicon grades for n-type and PERC cells vs. specifications of granular polysilicon

4. Capacities: The Herd Runs into Oversupply

Polysilicon sales contracts (in MT) since 2018

Polysilicon projects of other Chinese aspirants (capacity in metric tons)

Polysilicon capacity expansion plans/contraction (actual capacity) in MT 2019 - 2026

Geographical distribution of polysilicon capacities (in MT) planned across China

Captive silicon metal production capacities of polysilicon manufacturers/aspirants (in MT)

5. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2027

Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers

Polysilicon production by region (in MT) 2020 - 2027 (base-case scenario)

Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2020 - 2027

Scenario 2 (high case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2020 - 2027

Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2020 - 2027

Scenario 4 (low case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2020 - 2027

Top ten manufacturers in 2022

Top ten manufacturers in 2023

Top ten manufacturers in 2024

Top ten manufacturers in 2025

Top ten manufacturers in 2026

Top ten manufacturers in 2027

Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2020 - 2027

Solar-grade polysilicon production by technology (in MT) 2020 - 2027 (base case)

Company data and national standards for electronic-grade polysilicon

Electronic-grade polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2019 - 2027

6. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2027

Semiconductor silicon wafer shipments and polysilicon demand 2017 - 2027

Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2006 - 2022

PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2006 - 2022

Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2022

Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2023

Shipment results and guidance of the top five module suppliers 2021 - 2023

Share of the top five module suppliers in global PV installations 2016 - 2022

Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2023

Global PV installations in 2017 - 2022; base-case scenario for 2023 - 2027 (in GW)

Global PV installations vs. scenarios of BNEF and Bernreuter Research for 2015 - 2022

Global PV installations vs. SPE’s high scenarios for the current and fifth year, 2013 -2022

Forecast deviations of Bernreuter Reports issued in 2014, 2016 and 2020

Time lag between module production capacity and annual production volume 2007 - 2022

Module production/installation 2023 - 2027 derived from planned capacities

Three-year growth rate of cumulative global PV installations 1981 - 2027

Longi’s projection of annual global PV installations (in GW) through 2030

GCL Technology scenario of annual PV installations (in GW) by 2030

Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries

Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries

Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1948

Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)

Global crystalline-silicon solar cell and thin-film module production volumes 2007 - 2022

Ratio between cell/module production and PV system installation volumes 2007 - 2022

Scenarios of wafer production volumes (in GW) 2023 - 2027

Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)

Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and wafer production (in weeks)

Specific silicon consumption of wafer production (in g/W) 2015 - 2028

Share of first quarter in full-year cell/module production/shipment volumes

Solar wafer production and polysilicon consumption/demand 2014 - 2022

Scenarios of solar wafer production and polysilicon consumption/demand 2023 - 2027

Details of the scenario for specific silicon consumption 2018 - 2028

7. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2024

Balance of electronic-grade (EG) polysilicon supply and demand (in MT) 2009 - 2022

Scenario of EG polysilicon supply/demand (in MT) 2023 - 2027

Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2022

Scenarios for the demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2023 - 2027

Balance of total polysilicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2022

Unconfined polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1) and base-case demand 2020 - 2027

Scenarios of the polysilicon balance with unconfined output (in 1,000 MT) 2023 - 2027

Market-clearing demand scenario 2023 - 2027 (Supply Scenario 1)

PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2023 - 2027

Market-clearing demand scenarios 2016 - 2023 and actual results (in GW)

Polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2020 - 2027

Scenarios of the polysilicon supply/demand balance (low, base, high case) 2023 - 2027

Scenarios of polysilicon demand for n-type monocrystalline wafers 2023 - 2027

8. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates

Duty rates for imports from the USA, South Korea and the EU into China

Import volumes and shares of main importers as well as processing trade 2011 - 2022

9. Import Ban: The Chinese Forced-Labor Issue

Silicon metal (powder) suppliers of the top six polysilicon manufacturers in China

Shares of Xinjiang-based plants in global solar-grade polysilicon production 2020 - 2027

Clients and contract volumes (MT since 2020) of the top six polysilicon producers in China 85

10. Prices: The Valley Is Deep after the Peak

Development of the global polysilicon spot price average in 2020

Development of the global polysilicon spot price average in 2021

Development of the global polysilicon spot price average in 2022

Development of the global polysilicon spot price average in 2023

Comparison of the polysilicon price trends in 2023 and 2011

Chinese polysilicon industry cost curves 2023 - 2024 (solar grade, base case)

Chinese polysilicon industry cost curves 2025 - 2027 (solar grade, base case)

Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon price (in $/kg) in China 2023 - 2027

Poly demand from USA/Europe and non-Chinese supply (in MT) 2023 - 2027

Solar module price in the EU and non-Chinese polysilicon price in 2023

Non-Chinese polysilicon industry cost curves 2023, 2025, 2027 (solar grade, base case)

11. Outlook: Quartz, the Next Bottleneck

Global reserves of metallurgical-grade quartz (in million MT)

Silicon metal demand by application; cumulative quartz consumption 2021 - 2030

Appendix I

Cash costs of polysilicon manufacturers in US$/kg, 2023 - 2027 (base-case scenario)

 

Companies Covered

USA

Hemlock Semiconductor

Wacker Polysilicon North America

REC Silicon

High-Purity Silicon America

Germany

Wacker Chemie

Japan

Tokuyama

SUMCO/Mitsubishi Materials

South Korea

OCI Company

Malysia

OCI Malaysia

Arabian Peninsula

GCL Saudi Arabia

India

Reliance New Energy Solar

Indosol Solar (Shirdi Sai Electricals)

Adani Infrastructure & Developers

China

Tongwei

GCL Technology

Xinjiang Goens (GCL)

Jiangsu Xinhua Semiconductor (GCL)

Daqo New Energy

Xinte Energy (TBEA)

Asia Silicon (Hongshi Holdings)

East Hope

Inner Mongolia Dongli PV

Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tianhong REC

Inner Mongolia Erdos Polysilicon

Bayannur Juguang Silicon Industry

Yichang CSG Silicon Materials

Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower

Luoyang China Silicon

New entrants:

Qinghai Lihao Semiconductor Materials

Ningxia Runyang Silicon Material Tech.

Xinjiang Jingnuo New Energy Industry

Hongyuan Energy Technology (Baotou)

Hoshine Silicon Industry

Gansu Guazhou Baofeng Silicon Material

Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry

Xinyi Silicon Industry (Yunnan)

and many more aspirants

Manufacturers of upgraded silicon kerf

REC Solar Norway (formerly Elkem Solar)

Hunan Lixin Silicon Material Technology

Geely Juneng (Zhejiang) Technology

Report Brochure

Get your free info package on the report with the description of chapters, content highlights, author info, table of contents and list of tables and figures as a PDF:

Download Brochure

Get free info, no address data necessary