Overview of the report

The polysilicon industry in China has reached a global market share of 93.5%, but it is currently plagued by overcapacity, large inventories. prices below cash costs and sustained losses. How can the industry get out of this dilemma? Why would a major shakeout lay the ground for a new shortage by 2028? How will the spot price develop through 2029? What are the prospects for the separate non-Chinese polysilicon market segment? Which polysilicon manufacturers do source silicon metal from the Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region in northwestern China, which is known for the use of forced labor? How long will the global quartz reserves last for the production of silicon metal feedstock?

These and many other questions are answered by The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2029. If you would like to be up to date on the decisive market trends, the latest technological developments and future price points, the 102-page report provides you with all of that. It analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you navigate in a volatile market.

A wealth of data, analyzed comprehensibly

With the report, you will get in particular

• data on electricity consumption and power tariffs of the leading Chinese polysilicon manufacturers;
• capital expenditure (capex) figures for 36 polysilicon projects, including those using fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology for granular polysilicon;
• cash cost data on 30 solar-grade polysilicon plants worldwide;
• a list of 66 polysilicon sales contracts containing supplier and customer name, contract volume, start date and expiry;
• reviews of 21 new Chinese and three new Indian entrants and aspirants, plus a table with data on another 15 polysilicon projects of Chinese aspirants;
• production volumes and capacities of 41 solar-grade and electronic-grade factories from 2023 through 2029;
• market shares of the top ten manufacturers, production technologies and regions, including Xinjiang in China;
• an overview of the main silicon metal suppliers of seven leading polysilicon manufacturers in China;
• a list of captive silicon metal smelters planned by polysilicon manufacturers worldwide;
• data on annual polysilicon import volumes into China by country from 2013 through 2024 and into Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand from 2017 through 2024;
• a comprehensive data set on market shares of various solar cell technologies, cell efficiencies, wafer thickness and kerf loss from 2020 through 2030;
• impurity specifications and measurement data of electronic-grade polysilicon for semiconductors;
• a novel forecast methodology, resulting in four sophisticated scenarios of polysilicon supply and demand of the solar and semiconductor industries through 2029;
• a forecast of semiconductor wafer shipments through 2029;
• polysilicon industry cost curves and spot price forecasts for China through 2029;
• new sdata on the global quartz reserves for silicon metal production and the consumption for polysilicon, silicones, aluminum-silicon alloys and silicon-based anodes for lithium-ion batteries by 2030.

All of these details are analyzed thoroughly and comprehensibly. Thus, The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2029 provides you with comprehensive, in-depthand up-to-date information on the global polysilicon, solar and semiconductor markets.

Polysilicon market outlook with unique details

• The introduction describes why the polysilicon industry is like a super tanker with a long brake path, how the increasing Chinese share in production has changed this behavior, and why the pork cycle from oversupply to shortage to oversupply has returned after a long break.
• The background chapter explains why monocrystalline solar cells and modules were able to replace the once dominant multicrystalline technology within just five years and how almost the same is now happening between p-type and high-efficiency n-type cells.
• The technology chapter analyzes why the prevalent Siemens process has remained unchallenged and how much progress fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology has made for producing polysilicon granules. In addition, the chapter looks at  which activities have been undertaken to upgrade silicon kerf loss from wafer sawing, using metallurgical processes.
• The capacity chapter lists 66 polysilicon supply contracts and screens the construction projects of 36 new Chinese and three new Indian entrants and aspirants. A comprehensive table provides a concise overview of all plant shutdowns, capacity expansions and greenfield projects implemented and planned between 2021 and 2029. The chapter concludes with three trends that are shaping the global polysilicon industry today.
• The supply chapter presents four different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 41 polysilicon plants from 2023 through 2029. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers, points out China’s dominance among the world’s polysilicon production regions, and analyzes which impact the overcapacity in China has had so far. Finally, it details the production volumes of electronic-grade polysilicon for each manufacturer and shows impurity specifications and measurement data for electronic grade.
• The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the semiconductor and photovoltaic (PV) industries from 20197 through 2029. It analyzes the downside bias of traditional PV forecast models and shows a novel approach to predicting global PV installations. Moreover, the chapter provides a wealth of data on market shares of various solar cell technologies, cell efficiencies, wafer thickness and kerf loss, which all influence the specific silicon consumption.
• The balance chapter reconstructs the supply/demand balance for electronic-grade polysilicon since 2009, compares the various demand scenarios with supply on the total polysilicon market through 2029, and takes a special look at how close the market-clearing scenario (no oversupply) came to actual PV installations in the past. In conclusion, the chapter explains how the polysilicon overcapacity could be dissolved in the coming years.
• The duty chapter provides background on the anti-dumping measures of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and shows data from customs statistics on polysilicon imports into China from 2013 through 2024 and into Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand from 2017 through 2024.
• The chapter on the U.S. import ban against products made with forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China elucidates the coercive nature of labor transfer programs in Xinjiang and reveals who the main silicon metal suppliers of seven eading polysilicon manufacturers in China are. The chapter also quantifies the share of Xinjiang-based plants in the global output of solar-grade polysilicon.
• The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2021. Based on an analysis of Chinese industry cost curves, the chapter forecasts how the spot price will develop in China through 2029. For non-Chinese polysilicon, an alternative analysis explains how the price is formed outside China.
• The outlook chapter uses new data to assess the global quartz reserves for silicon metal production and predicts how much of these reserves will be consumed by polysilicon, silicones, aluminum-silicon alloys and silicon-based anodes for lithium-ion batteries by 2030.
• A directory of 73 websites from manufacturers, new entrants, equipment suppliers and engineering firms supplements the polysilicon market report.

Who the report is useful for

The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2029 is an ideal market guide for:

• polysilicon, solar and semiconductor manufacturers
• equipment suppliers and engineering firms
• investors, consultants, analysts and researchers alike.

Table of Contents

Imprint

Executive Summary

List of Tables and Figures

Companies covered

Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Introduction: The Return of the Pork Cycle

Chinese overcapacity prolongs price down-cycle to twelve years

Why the pork cycle has returned

2. Background: From Multi to Mono to N-type

PERC technology has changed the efficiency game

Significant cost reduction for monocrystalline ingots and wafers

The next rapid transition is from p-type to n-type

3. Technologies: The Field Narrows

3.1 The Siemens Process

3.2 Fluidized Bed Reactor Technology

Wacker Chemie (Germany)

Asia Silicon (China)

REC Silicon (USA)

TianREC (China)

GCL Technology Holdings (China)

Sichuan Yongxiang New Energy (China)

GCL and TianREC have to reduce impurity concentrations

Unclear future for Asia Silicon’s DCS-fed reactor

3.3 Metallurgical Upgrading of Silicon Kerf Loss

REC Solar Norway

Hunan Lixin Silicon Material Technology (China)

Geely Juneng (Zhejiang) Technology (China)

4. Capacities: The Herd Runs into Oversupply

Hardly any chance for medium-sized Chinese manufacturers

The end of solar-grade polysilicon production in South Korea

Shakeout lays the ground for shortage

Expansion push by Chinese incumbent manufacturers

The first wave of Chinese new entrants

The second wave of Chinese new entrants

The third wave of Chinese new entrants

And the wave went on …

India’s program for a domestic solar value chain

Trends that are shaping the global polysilicon industry

5. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2029

China’s share in solar-grade polysilicon output has reached 95%

High mountain of inventory weighs heavily on the industry

ISlowing industry concentration and rising share of FBR technology

Supply and specifications of electronic-grade polysilicon

6. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2029

6.1 Demand from the semiconductor industry

6.2 Demand from the photovoltaic industry

Analysis of global PV installations 2007 - 2024

Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts

Extrapolation from the guidance of top module suppliers

Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2025 - 2029

The downside bias of country-based bottom-up forecasts

Forecast derived from planned module production capacities

Plausibility test: Three-year growth rate of cumulative PV installations

An alternative scenario and interim conclusion

A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries

From installation to production volumes

Time lag between polysilicon and wafer production

Drivers of specific silicon consumption

7. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2029

7.1 The market for electronic-grade polysilicon

7.2 The total polysilicon market

Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)

Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (high, base and low case)

The long way to a new supply-demand equilibrium

8. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates

Tit for tat rulings on punitive duties

The big loophole offered by processing trade

One loophole closed, others getting very small

South Korea knocked out, USA shut out, Vietnam sought out

9. Import Ban: The Chinese Forced-Labor Issue

The coercive nature of labor transfer programs in Xinjiang

Impact of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in the U.S.

Silicon metal sources of seven leading Chinese polysilicon makers

Silicon metal supply of non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers

The Chinese strategy of separate supply chains

10. Prices: Next Peak behind the Deep Valley?

2021: Major shortage drives the price up to $36/kg

2022: The price rise stops short of $40/kg

2023: Oversupply lets the price crash to below $10/kg

2024: Massive inventories plunge manufacturers into losses

2025 - 2029: Abrupt rise lurks after extreme low-price phase

Non-Chinese polysilicon: Will new EU regulation fuel demand?

Electronic-grade polysilicon: High price level not set in stone

11. Outlook: Bypassing the Quartz Bottleneck

Early warning: Shortage of high-purity quartz sand for crucibles

Limited reserves: Metallurgical-grade quartz for silicon metal

Silicon metal demand: Polysilicon makers shift to lower purity

12. Conclusion: Beware of the Next Pork Cycle

Appendix I: Cash Costs of Polysilicon Manufacturers

Appendix II: Directory of Company Websites

About the author

List of Tables and Figures

1. Introduction: The Return of the Pork Cycle

Intervals between contract price peaks and troughs 1977 - 2017

Trend of the monthly polysilicon spot price average October 2011 - May 2025

2. Background: From Multi to Mono to N-type

Market shares of monocrystalline and n-type solar cells 2015 - 2030

3. Technologies: The Field Narrows

Capital expenditures for polysilicon plants in China 2015 - 2024

Specific energy and electricity consumption of polysilicon plants in China 2007 - 2024

Electricity sources, rates, consumption and costs of polysilicon producers in China in 2020

Capital expenditures for FBR polysilicon plants

Polysilicon grades for n-type solar cells vs. specifications of granular polysilicon

4. Capacities: The Herd Runs into Oversupply

Polysilicon sales contracts (in MT) since 2018

Polysilicon projects of other Chinese aspirants (capacity in metric tons)

Polysilicon capacity expansion plans/contraction (actual capacity) in MT 2022 - 2029

Geographical distribution of polysilicon capacities (in MT) planned across China

Captive silicon metal production capacities of polysilicon manufacturers/aspirants (in MT)

5. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2029

Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers

Polysilicon production by region (in MT) 2023 - 2029 (base-case scenario)

Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2023 - 2029

Scenario 2 (high case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2023 - 2029

Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2023 - 2029

Scenario 4 (low case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2023 - 2029

Top ten manufacturers in 2024

Top ten manufacturers in 2025

Top ten manufacturers in 2026

Top ten manufacturers in 2027

Top ten manufacturers in 2028

Top ten manufacturers in 2029

Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2022 - 2029

Production status of Chinese polysilicon manufacturers as of May 8, 2025

Solar-grade polysilicon production by technology (in MT) 2023 - 2029 (base case)

Company data and national standards for electronic-grade polysilicon

Electronic-grade polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2021 - 2029

6. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2029

Semiconductor silicon wafer shipments and polysilicon demand 2019 - 2029

Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2007 - 2024

PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2007 - 2024

Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2024

Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2024

Shipment results/guidance of top five module suppliers & Canadian Solar 2023 - 2025

Share of the top six module suppliers in global PV installations 2016 - 2024

Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2025

Global PV installations in 2019 - 2024; base-case scenario for 2025 - 2029 (in GW)

Global PV installations vs. scenarios of BNEF and Bernreuter Research for 2015 - 2023

Global PV installations vs. SPE’s high scenarios for the current and fifth year, 2013 -2023

Forecast deviations of Bernreuter Reports issued in 2014, 2016 and 2020

Time lag between module production capacity and annual production volume 2007 - 2022

Module production/installation 2023 - 2027 derived from planned capacities

Three-year growth rate of cumulative global PV installations 1981 - 2029

Scenarios of BNEF, Bernreuter and Dahlmeier for PV installations 2024 - 2030

Compound annual growth rates of global PV installations 1975 - 2024

Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries

Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries

Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1950

Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)

Global crystalline-silicon solar cell and thin-film module production volumes 2008 - 2024

Ratio between cell/module production and PV system installation volumes 2008 - 2024

Scenarios of wafer production volumes (in GW) 2025 - 2029

Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)

Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and wafer production (in weeks)

Specific silicon consumption of wafer production (in g/W) 2017 - 2030

Share of first quarter in full-year cell/module production/shipment volumes

Solar wafer production and polysilicon consumption/demand 2014 - 2024

Scenarios of solar wafer production and polysilicon consumption/demand 2025 - 2029

Details of the scenario for specific silicon consumption 2020 - 2030

7. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2029

Balance of electronic-grade (EG) polysilicon supply and demand (in MT) 2009 - 2022

Scenario of EG polysilicon supply/demand (in MT) 2023 - 2027

Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2022

EG polysilicon supply/demand (in MT) in 2023/2024; scenario for 2025 - 2029

Balance of total polysilicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2024

Unconfined polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1) and base-case demand 2022 - 2029

Scenarios of the polysilicon balance with unconfined output (in 1,000 MT) 2025 - 2029

Market-clearing demand scenario 2025 - 2029 (Supply Scenario 1)

PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2025 - 2029

Market-clearing demand scenarios 2017 - 2024 and actual results (in GW)

Polysilicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2022 - 2029

Scenarios of the polysilicon supply/demand balance (low, base, high case) 2025 - 2029

Scenarios of the Chinese polysilicon industry’s utilization rate 2024 - 2029

Shares in Chinese polysilicon capacity expansion 2020 - 2024

Polysilicon inventories of the top four manufacturers at the end of 2024

8. Duties: Chinese Wall with Selective Gates

Duty rates for imports from the USA, South Korea and the EU into China

Polysilicon imports (in MT) into China and shares of main importers 2013 - 2024

Polysilicon imports (in MT) into Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand 2017 - 2024

9. Import Ban: The Chinese Forced-Labor Issue

Silicon metal (powder) suppliers of the top six polysilicon manufacturers in China

Shares of Xinjiang-based plants in global solar-grade polysilicon production 2023 - 2029

Clients and contract volumes (MT since 2020) of the top six polysilicon producers in China

10. Prices: Next Peak behind the Deep Valley?

Development of the global polysilicon spot price average in 2021

Development of the global polysilicon spot price average in 2022

Development of polysilicon spot prices in and outside China in 2023

Development of polysilicon spot prices in and outside China in 2024

Comparison of the polysilicon price trends 2023 - 2025 vs. 2011 - 2013

Chinese polysilicon industry cost curves 2024 - 2026 (solar grade for n-type, base case)

Chinese polysilicon industry cost curves 2027 - 2029 (solar grade for n-type, base case)

Year-end polysilicon price (in $/kg) for n-type ingots in China 2024 - 2029

PERC solar module price in the EU and polysilicon price outside China in 2023/2024

Non-Chinese polysilicon industry cost curves in 2027 and 2029 (solar grade, base case)

Demand from USA and Europe for non-Chinese polysilicon and supply 2023 - 2029

11. Outlook: Bypassing the Quartz Bottleneck

Global reserves of metallurgical-grade quartz (in million MT)

Silicon metal demand by application; cumulative quartz consumption 2021 - 2030

Appendix I

Cash costs of polysilicon manufacturers in US$/kg, 2024 - 2029 (base-case scenario)

Companies Covered

USA

Hemlock Semiconductor

Wacker Polysilicon North America

REC Silicon

High-Purity Silicon America

Highland Materials

Germany

Wacker Chemie

Japan

Tokuyama

SUMCO/Mitsubishi Materials

South Korea

OCI Company

Malysia

OCI TerraSus

Oman

United Solar Polysilicon

India

Reliance New Energy Solar

Indosol Solar (Shirdi Sai Electricals)

Mundra Solar PV (Adani Solar)

China

Tongwei

GCL Technology

Jiangsu Xinhua Semiconductor (GCL)

Daqo New Energy

Xinte Energy (TBEA)

East Hope

Qinghai Lihao Qingneng

Asia Silicon (Hongshi Holdings)

Xinjiang Goens

Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tianhong REC

Inner Mongolia Erdos Polysilicon

Inner Mongolia Dongli PV

Bayannur Juguang Silicon Industry

Yichang CSG Silicon Materials

Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower

Luoyang China Silicon

New entrants:

Ningxia Runyang Silicon Material Tech.

Xinjiang Jingnuo New Energy Industry

Hongyuan Energy Technology

Hoshine Silicon Industry

Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry

Gansu Guazhou Baofeng Silicon Material

Xinyi Silicon Industry

Haidong Hongshi Semiconductor

Qinghai CSG Sunrise New Energy Tech.

and many more aspirants

Manufacturers of upgraded silicon kerf

REC Solar Norway (formerly Elkem Solar)

Hunan Lixin Silicon Material Technology

Geely Juneng (Zhejiang) Technology

What customers said about the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027

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“Valuable insights into market trends and key industry players”

Bernreuter Research’s Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 offers a thorough analysis of the polysilicon market. The report is detailed and well-structured, with valuable insights into market trends, supply and demand variables, and key industry players. Highly useful for industry professionals and researchers seeking in-depth understanding of the PV supply chain.

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