The 2014 Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production

Overview of the report

Do you want to have a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the polysilicon industry? On its  technological innovations and decisive market trends? The 2014 Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production provides you with all of that. It analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you make the best strategic decisions

This 124-page polysilicon market report offers all-encompassing information on 130 companies in the polysilicon sector. It covers incumbent manufacturers, new entrants and aspirants from:

• the Americas
• Europe
• Japan 
• South Korea
• China
• Taiwan
• Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States
• India
• the Arabian Peninsula.

Nine chapters give you valuable insight into:

• the shakeout of roughly 50 polysilicon manufacturers
• new trends for polysilicon production technologies
• the latest developments at polysilicon companies
  
• the perspectives for polysilicon supply through 2017
• scenarios of polysilicon demand through 2017
• consequences from the supply/demand balance
• the development of the polysilicon spot price through 2017
  
• the manufacturing costs of 48 polysilicon plants
• seven major polysilicon market trends.

Polysilicon report with unique details

• The introduction illustrates the connection between the polysilicon spot price and the number of manufacturers and details the shakeout by listing all companies that have stopped production since 2011 with production capacity and exit date.
• The technology chapter re-assesses the technical viability and cost potential of 10 polysilicon manufacturing routes, including the dominant Siemens process and physical purification methods to obtain upgraded metallurgical-grade (UMG) silicon – all in light of the recent market development and new technological achievements.
• The company chapter covers capacity expansions and plant shutdowns, technological progress and the latest project changes at 92 manufacturers and aspirants through concise updates, arranged according to world region and manufacturing approach. Each region is introduced by a brief summary of location factors and/or development trends.
• The supply chapter provides you with 4 different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 85 polysilicon and UMG silicon plants and projects from 2011 through 2017. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers and the distribution of the global output by world region.
• The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the photovoltaic (PV) and semiconductor industries from 2012 through 2017. It uses an improved bottom-up approach, based on numerous forecasts for regional PV markets, in order to arrive at 3 different scenarios of global PV demand.
• The balance chapter compares the various demand and supply scenarios, explains consequences from the supply/demand balance for market participants, and discusses changes in the cyclical pattern of the polysilicon industry.
• The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2011 and uses data from customs statistics to assess the effect of Chinese anti-dumping duties. Based on a diligent analysis of industry cost curves, it forecasts the development of the polysilicon spot price through 2017.
• The cost chapter provides data and background on cash production costs and depreciation rates of 48 polysilicon and UMG silicon plants from 2012 through 2017.
• The conclusion succinctly summarizes seven major trends for the polysilicon industry and embeds them in a broader context.
• A directory of 145 web sites from manufacturers, aspirants, equipment suppliers and engineering firms supplements the polysilicon report.

Who the report is useful for

The 2014 Who’s Who of Solar Silicon Production is an ideal market guide for:

• polysilicon, solar and semiconductor manufcturers
• equipment suppliers and engineering firms
• investors, consultants, analysts and researchers alike.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Introduction: Anatomy of the Shakeout

2. Technologies: A Fresh Assessment

2.1  Introduction: Changing rules of the game
2.2  The Siemens process
2.3  A simplified Siemens process
2.4  Monosilane-based approaches
2.5  Fluidized bed reactor technology
2.6  Vapor to Liquid Deposition
2.7  Reduction of silicon tetrachloride with zinc
2.8  Reduction of silicon tetrafluoride with sodium
2.9  Electrolytic approaches
2.10  Physical purification of silicon metal
2.11  Direct carbothermic reduction
2.12 Conclusion: Benchmarking the technologies

3. Companies: Developments across the World

3.1 The Americas (Canada, USA, Brazil)

Hemlock Semiconductor Group
REC Silicon Inc.
MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (now: Sunedison, Inc.)
Wacker Polysilicon North America LLC
Hoku Materials, Inc.
Silfab Ontario Inc.
Umoe Solar New Brunswick Inc.
AE Polysilicon Corp.
Peak Sun Silicon Corp.
Arise Technologies Corp.
Buckeye Silicon Inc.
Silicor Materials Inc. (formerly Calisolar Inc.)
Bécancour Silicon Inc.
Dow Corning Corp.
Rima Industrial S/A
Solar Silicon Inc.
Solsil, Inc.
Mayaterials, Inc.
Process Research Ortech Inc.
RSI Silicon Products LLC
21-Century Silicon, Inc.

3.2 Europe

Wacker Chemie AG
MEMC Electronic Materials S.p.A.
Silicon Products Bitterfeld GmbH & Co. KG (formerly PV Crystalox)
The Silicon Mine B.V.
Silicio Energía S.A.
Centesil S.L.
Siliken Chemicals S.L.
JSSi GmbH
Schmid Polysilicon Production GmbH
Elkem Solar AS
Clean Silicon AS
Grupo Ferroatlántica S.A.
Solarvalue AG
Evonik Solar Norge AS (formerly Fesil Sunergy AS)
Ned Silicon SpA
JPM Silicon GmbH
Girasolar B.V.
Hycore ANS

3.3 Japan

Tokuyama Corp.
Mitsubishi Materials Corp.
Osaka Titanium technologies Co., Ltd.
M.Setek Co., Ltd.
Japan Solar Silicon Co., Ltd.
JFE Steel Corp.
NS Solar Material Co., Ltd.

3.4 South Korea

OCI Company Ltd.
Hankook Silicon Co., Ltd.
Woongjin Polysilicon Co., Ltd.
Korea Advanced Materials Co., Ltd.
Hanwha Chemical Corp.
LG Chem Ltd.
KCC Corp.
SMP, LTP (Samsung Fine Chemicals/MEMC joint venture)
Sphere Renewable Energy Asia Pacific, Inc.

3.5 China

Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co., Ltd.
LDK Silicon & Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.
TBEA Xinjiang Silicon Industry Co., Ltd.
Daqo New Energy Corp.
Sichuan Renesola Silicon Material Co., Ltd.
Luoyang China Silicon High-Tech Co., Ltd.
Yichang CSG Polysilicon Co., Ltd.
Asia Silicon (Qinghai) Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon Co., Ltd.
Inner Mongolia Dunan Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd.
Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower Development Co., Ltd.

3.6 Taiwan

Taiwan Polysilicon Corp.
Powertec Energy Corp.
AUO Crystal Corp.
Muto Silicon Corp.
Sun Materials Technology Co., Ltd.
Shihlien Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
Real Green Material Technology Corp.

3.7 Australia

Auzsolar Pty Ltd

3.8  Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States

Nitol Solar Ltd.
Semiconductor Plant OJSC
Semiconductor Silicon Plant JSC
Uzkhimprom SJSC

3.9 India

Lanco Solar Pvt. Ltd.
Iacharya Silicon Ltd.
Maharishi Solar Technology Pvt. Ltd.
Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd.

3.10 Arabian Peninsula

Polysilicon Technology Co.
Qatar Solar Technologies Q.S.C.
IDEA Polysilicon Co.
Saudi Polysilicon
Cosmos Chemicals Bhd.
Al Rajhi Group      63
MBM Solar Holding Inc.
Mubadala Development Co.
SilicoTek B.V.
Silicor Materials Inc. (formerly Calisolar Inc.)

4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2017

5. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2017

5.1 Demand from the semiconductor industry

5.2 Demand from the photovoltaic industry

Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts
Different approach: Extrapolation from three independent indicators
Reality check: 2012 result and analysis
Extrapolation revisited: Projections for 2013
Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2013 - 2017
A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries
From installation to production volumes
Time lag between polysilicon and solar cell production

6. Balance: Dynamics of Supply and Demand

Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)
Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (low, base and high case)
Change of the cyclical pattern
On the eve of a turbulent market development

7. Prices: The Roller-Coaster Ride Continues

2011: The market correction begins
2012: Dumping of inventories
2013: Anti-dumping tit for tat
2014 - 2017: Return of record-low prices

8. Costs: Breaking the Barrier of 20 $/kg

9. Conclusion: Steering through Stormy Waters

Appendix: Directory of Company Web Sites

A. Manufacturers and aspirants
B. CVD reactor suppliers
C. Providers of reactor power supply systems
D. Hydrochlorination technology providers
E. Other technology providers/consultants
F. Engineering, procurement & construction firms

List of Tables and Figures

1. Introduction: Anatomy of the Shakeout

Number of polysilicon/UMG silicon manufacturers vs. polysilicon spot price 2004 - 2013
Polysilicon manufacturers that have stopped production since 2011

2. Technologies: A Fresh Assessment

Market shares of ingot/cell technologies 2012 - 2017
Development periods for alternative polysilicon production technologies
Development of polysilicon production costs
Polysilicon manufacturers and projects with hydrochlorination process
Sensitivity analysis of cost savings with hydrochlorination (greenfield plant)
Power consumption of the SST process
Indices of REC Silicon’s FBR polysilicon plant per quarter
Carbon concentration of VLD silicon and SEMI standard
Improvement of impurity concentrations (ppmw) by UMG silicon manufacturers/developers
Average cell efficiencies reached by Calisolar Inc.
Structure of Silicor Materials’ projected manufacturing costs per 1 kg of UMG silicon
Construction periods for larger-scale UMG silicon plants
Impurity concentrations (ppmw) in silicon from direct carbothermic reduction
SiO2 material costs per 1 kg of silicon produced from various feedstocks
Ranking of polysilicon production technologies

3. Companies: Developments across the World

Industrial electricity rates for polysilicon production in various world regions
Hemlock Semiconductor’s capex for expansion
Impurity concentrations (ppba) of REC’s granular polysilicon
Wacker Polysilicon’s capex for expansion
OCI Company’s capex
Proposed list of companies in line with access conditions
Chinese polysilicon manufacturers in production
Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon’s capex

4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2017

2012 polysilicon production scenario and result (in MT)
Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers
Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 2 (low case): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 2 (low case): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 4 (high case): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 4 (high case): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 1 (unconfined): Production of UMG/DCR silicon by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 3 (base case): UMG silicon production by Tier 1 & 2 companies (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Scenario 3 (base case): Silicon production by region (in MT) 2011 - 2017
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2012
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2013
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2014
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2015
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2016
Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2017
Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2011 - 2017

5. Demand: Market perspectives through 2017

Polysilicon demand from the semiconductor industry
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2008
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2009
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2010
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2011
Deviation of analyst forecasts from actual installation volumes 2008 - 2011
2002 scenario of the PV industry’s polysilicon demand and actual result
Guidance and results of 20 major cell/module manufacturers 2008 - 2012
Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2012
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2012
Extrapolation from the analyst forecast average for 2012
Extrapolations of the PV installation volume in 2012
PV growth rates 2003 - 2006, 2009 - 2012
Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2003 - 2012
PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2003 - 2012
Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2013
Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2013
Results and guidance of major cell/module manufacturers in 2012/2013
Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2013
2012 scenario and result (in GW)
Installation scenarios for the top ten PV markets (in GW) 2013 - 2017
Installation scenarios of IHS, EPIA, Sarasin and Bernreuter Research for 2013 - 2017
Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries
Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1945
Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)
Global cryst. solar cell and thin-film module production volumes (in MW) 2004 - 2012
Ratio between global cell/module production and PV system installation volumes
Scenarios of crystalline silicon cell production volumes (in GW) 2013 - 2017
Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)
Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and cell production (in weeks)
Specific silicon consumption of cell production (in g/W) 2010 - 2018
Share of first quarter in full year cell/module production/shipment volumes
Polysilicon consumption/demand of the PV industry (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2012
Scenarios of the PV industry’s polysilicon consumption/demand (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2017

6. Balance: Dynamics of Supply and Demand

Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2012
Scenarios for the demand of the PV & semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2017
Balance of silicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2012
Silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1, unconfined) and demand scenarios 2013 - 2017
Scenarios of the silicon supply/demand balance (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2017
Comparison of high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2013 - 2017
New PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios
Silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2013 - 2017
Scenarios of the silicon supply/demand balance (low, base and high case) 2013 - 2017
Intervals between contract price peaks and troughs 1977 - 2011

7. Prices: The Roller-Coaster Ride Continues

Development of spot and contract prices versus Chinese polysilicon imports in 2011
Development of spot and contract prices versus Chinese polysilicon imports in 2012
Development of spot and contract prices versus Chinese polysilicon imports in 2013
Preliminary duty rates for imports from the USA and South Korea to China
Average price ($/kg) of polysilicon imported to China
Shares of processing trade and main importers in monthly imports in 2013
Development of the Chinese and international spot prices in 2013
Electronic-grade production volumes and capacities (MT) in 2012
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2012 - 2014 (base-case scenario)
Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2015 - 2017 (base-case scenario)
Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon spot price (in $/kg) 2013 - 2017

8. Costs: Breaking the Barrier of 20 $/kg

Cash costs and depreciation rates (in $/kg) of polysilicon manufacturers 2012 - 2017

Bernreuter Research has published a new study on silicon production with probably the greatest amount of information on the subject so far. Bernreuter paints a picture of the industry that is as extensive as it is detailed. The study is also valuable because, unlike many of his fellow analysts, Bernreuter goes beyond just reporting the status quo. Indeed, the scale of Bernreuter’s analysis is quite impressive. In the study’s key section, he outlines four scenarios with estimated production figures through 2017 to analyse each manufacturer individually. Just to give an idea of the sheer size of his work, Bernreuter researched some 1,200 statistics from about 80 companies worldwide for each scenario.

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